Irene Paterson

Secretary

Kirkmahoe Community Council

                                                                                                18th December 2025

One in eight properties across Scotland at medium risk of flooding.

The Scottish Environment Protection Agency’s (SEPA) latest assessment of flood risk shows a sharp rise in number of properties at risk across the country. 

The National Flood Risk Assessment (NFRA) 2025 report reveals 400,000, or one in eight, homes, business and vital services are in areas of medium risk of flooding. Medium risk is where there is a greater than 0.5 likelihood of flooding each year. 

This figure is up from 284,000 in 2018 and projected to reach 634,000 by 2100 due to climate change.  

The NFRA is a strategic tool that provides a national picture of the risk of flooding in Scotland. For the first time it also shows where flooding will be deepest, not just where it will happen:  

• 25,000 properties are at medium risk from the sea, with more than one in three homes in areas at risk of deeper flooding. Flooding from this source will see the largest proportional increase this century as sea levels rise and storm surges intensify.  

• 84,000 properties are at medium risk of flooding from rivers, with 5,000 residential properties currently in areas of high-risk deep flooding of at least 30cm and set to double by 2100.  

• 327,000 properties are at medium risk from surface water and small watercourses, a number set to grow by 200,000 by the end of the century – although flooding from this source is generally shallower. 

The report estimates flooding costs are approaching £500 million each year and that figure is growing.   

Eleanore Cooper, Head of Environmental Forecasting and Warning at SEPA, said:  

“Flooding is Scotland’s most severe climate-related risk. Communities from the Borders to the Highlands and Islands have lived with the impact of flooding for decades and, as our climate changes, those impacts are accelerating.  

“The NFRA performs a key role in advancing our flood resilience, providing evidence to inform coordinated action on flooding and support decisions on investment for flood risk management. 

“It gives us the clearest picture yet of what lies ahead and, ultimately, is a roadmap to better flood resilience.” 

NFRA 2025 is the cornerstone for the implementation of Scotland’s Flood Resilience Strategy and the next cycle of flood risk management planning. It will help shape SEPA’s National Flood Risk Management Plans, which will be consulted on in early 2026, and the subsequent Local Flood Risk Management Plans, which will be published by Lead Local Authorities for local plan districts in 2028.  

NFRA has benefited from richer property data, improved climate projections, and enhanced modelling methods, meaning comparisons with 2018 data isn’t straightforward – science and understanding have moved on.  

Read the full National Flood Risk Assessment 2025 report at National Flood Risk Assessment | Beta | SEPA | Scottish Environment Protection Agency Supporting data will be published by SEPA in Spring 2026.  

Regards,

Peter

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